U.S. Tariffs Face Growing Political Pressure Ahead of Midterm Elections

Canada–U.S. trade tensions remain elevated as the November 3 U.S. midterm elections approach. While President Trump continues to defend his tariff policies, some Republican candidates in states heavily reliant on cross-border trade are distancing themselves from the administration's approach. 

On October 7, Michigan Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers called for an immediate end to the tariff war with Canada. Meanwhile, Industry Minister Mélanie Joly rejected U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra's suggestions that Canadian officials' comments on counter-tariffs could constitute election interference.

Canadian steel sector faces continued pressure

U.S. tariffs continue to weigh on Canada's steel industry, with Stelco beginning layoffs in mid-October after announcing plans affecting up to 500 workers at its Ontario operations. Ottawa maintains that the layoffs violate employment commitments made by Stelco's U.S. owner, Cleveland-Cliffs, under the Investment Canada Act, warning of potential consequences, including a forced sale of its Canadian assets. Cleveland-Cliffs disputes the government's position and has called for tighter restrictions on steel imports to support Canadian production.

Trade policy faces scrutiny in Washington

Recent polling shows growing U.S. public opposition to tariffs. In an October ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, 65% of Americans disapproved of the President’s handling of tariffs. If Democrats win the House, they are expected to step up oversight of trade policy. However, the administration’s tariffs rest on existing statutory authorities, so oversight alone is unlikely to reverse them.

What it means for business

Growing opposition to tariffs may create opportunities for renewed engagement with U.S. lawmakers, particularly in states with deeply integrated Canadian supply chains. However, the administration remains committed to its tariffs approach. Canadian businesses should prepare for prolonged trade uncertainty, regardless of the midterm election outcome.